Severe Storms Likely This Weekend (1/21-1/22)

We continue to monitor the potential for strong to severe storms across the area beginning Saturday and lasting into Sunday morning. At this time, it does appear that all modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding.

For those that do not want all of the details, our Outlook has a simple breakdown of what we expect. A more thorough look can be found below the Outlook table.

 

Outlook Table

HAZARDTIMINGCONFIDENCE NATURE
No hazardous weather is expected from October 5th through 12th.

The afternoon outlook from the Storm Prediction Center located at the top of the post shows where severe thunderstorms are likely. At this time the greatest risk will be across east-central Mississippi and into portions of west Alabama but all of Alabama is under the standard Slight Risk category with damaging winds being the main concern.

Morning model data has been pretty consistent showing showers and thunderstorms developing around the lunch hour for central Alabama on Saturday:

Simulated Radar

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As we take a look at severe weather paramaters during this time, surface-based CAPE values are very high in the area of thunderstorms:

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As we look forward ahead in time, CAPE values increase as we get closer to midnight especially for central Alabama:

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Supercell composite run shows where supercells are most likely to develop. This is 9:00 PM Saturday:

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STP (Significant Tornado Paramaters) around 9:00 PM Saturday. This shows the “peak time” for any tornadic development:

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Thunderstorm activity will be in a southwest to northeast track, so coverage will become widespread throughout the evening. A severe weather risk will continue overnight and last through Sunday morning for the eastern half of the state.

Total rainfall amounts from this event range from 1 to 3 inches. However some areas may receive up to 4 inches:

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We recommend everyone have a way to receive weather Warnings as Saturday will likely be a day where multiple Watches and Warnings are issued. The AWP Team will be standing by to keep all users informed of the situation. Be sure to join our Discord server and follow our social media accounts (which are shown within the Discord server)