Yesterday we were on the short end of a hit-or-miss situation, with limited instability in the atmopshere but plenty of shear there was the possibility that we would just see heavy rain and wind – and for most areas – that’s all that was received with the exception of a few embedded thunderstorms for areas south of the Tennessee River into central Alabama.
For late tonight into early Wednesday morning, things are looking quite different as we are looking at the potential for severe thunderstorms – 1 or 2 in which could be strong and long-tracked.
This is the 7:00 AM outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:
The Enhanced Risk is where the highest potential for significant damaging wind gusts and stronger tornadoes will be, as is highlighted in the tornado outlook:
Damaging winds a possibility with any severe storms as well:
Things get a little complicated when we start looking at model data. Typically, you can take a “blend” of model data but it’s difficult when they’re about 6 hours apart…
This is high-resolution data for 7:00 PM, and the CAPE values that are available at that time:
Supercell Composite is the chance that supercells can develop at a certain time. These are known as SCP and STP values.
The precip lines up at 01Z (7:00 PM), this is the chance of supercells and tornadoes at 7:00 PM:
The STP goes out as far as 11:00 PM and these are the STP values at that time:
Summing It Up
We’re getting very close to the event and there’s little time or room for changes. There will be a follow-up update around lunchtime to see if anything changes. Be sure you have a way to receive alerts from reliable sources.