Severe Thunderstorms Likely Late Tonight Into Wednesday Morning

Yesterday we were on the short end of a hit-or-miss situation, with limited instability in the atmopshere but plenty of shear there was the possibility that we would just see heavy rain and wind – and for most areas – that’s all that was received with the exception of a few embedded thunderstorms for areas south of the Tennessee River into central Alabama.

For late tonight into early Wednesday morning, things are looking quite different as we are looking at the potential for severe thunderstorms – 1 or 2 in which could be strong and long-tracked.

This is the 7:00 AM outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

al_swody1

The Enhanced Risk is where the highest potential for significant damaging wind gusts and stronger tornadoes will be, as is highlighted in the tornado outlook:

day1probotlk_1300_torn

Damaging winds a possibility with any severe storms as well:

day1probotlk_1300_wind

Model Data

Things get a little complicated when we start looking at model data. Typically, you can take a “blend” of model data but it’s difficult when they’re about 6 hours apart…

This is high-resolution data for 7:00 PM, and the CAPE values that are available at that time:

hrrrse_prec_radar_014 hrrrse_con_sbcape_011

 

Supercell Composite is the chance that supercells can develop at a certain time. These are known as SCP and STP values.

The precip lines up at 01Z (7:00 PM), this is the chance of supercells and tornadoes at 7:00 PM:

hrrrse_con_scp_014 hrrrse_con_stp_014

The STP goes out as far as 11:00 PM and these are the STP values at that time:

hrrrse_con_stp_018

Summing It Up

We’re getting very close to the event and there’s little time or room for changes. There will be a follow-up update around lunchtime to see if anything changes. Be sure you have a way to receive alerts from reliable sources.