Severe Weather Likely Monday (1/2/17)

We are currently monitoring the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms across the area this New Years day. Starting with today, it does look like the bulk of showers will be focused on south/southwest Alabama as illustrated by the hi-res model run below:

14Z-20170101_HRRRSE_prec_radar.gif

In addition, it does look like shower/thunderstorm development is possible this far north around 11:00 PM. Latest analysis does not show any instability, so it looks to be showers with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder tonight:

NAMSE_prec_radar_012

For Monday, here is the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (Note: the next update is scheduled at noon, this image will be updated with the outlook at that time)

Update: Here is the updated outlook from 11:30AM Sunday:

AL_swody2 (1)

 

Severe weather paramaters start coming into place around 3:00 PM for the western half of the state:

NAMSE_con_scp_033

Precip at this time is rather scattered in nature:

NAMSE_prec_radar_033

There is some shear in place… but it’s not very high or effective. Given this, it looks as though damaging winds would be the main threat with a low but non-zero threat for a tornado here and there:

NAMSE_con_mucape_033

Our Team will continue to monitor the situation and post more updates as they become available throughout the day and tomorrow. Activation of our Tracking Mode Status is currently pending due to some of us having work constraints. Check back soon for more updates on this.