Something we have been watching for over a week now is the potential for a few strong storms ahead of a cold front. All things have come together now and we can finally make a conclusion:
With the ingredients in place that we have, we’re going to see things get windy on Monday. Sustained winds of 15-25 MPH will be possible with gusts to around 30, and even 40 MPH in the higher terrains. The ongoing drought has cracked and weakened many trees, so winds this strong could easily break tree limbs.
As of right now the SPC has a Marginal Risk in place for the western portions of Alabama for Monday night. This is where helicity is the highest and the greatest potential for severe storms will be, but the main threat will be winds up to 50 MPH.
The first round of rain enters northwest Alabama between 3 and 4 PM Monday:
The instability does not line up well with the precipitation so there’s not much support for supercell thunderstorms; however there is plenty of helicity/shear in the atmosphere for strong gusty winds and very heavy rain.
Rain will continue through the evening hours on Monday before tapering off on Tuesday. The next chance of rain comes early Wednesday morning:
Again not much instability with this precipitation, and helicity isn’t realized for another few hours mainly across northeast Alabama. This means the highest probability for gusty winds and heavy rain will be across the east/northeast portions of the state:
Tornado threat? Pretty close to 0. Things have to line up better than this for there to be a tornado risk. We’re lacking instability with this system. Don’t let the word “helicity and shear” scare you into thinking there’s a tornado threat.
School closings? No. Do your homework. This isn’t going to be an organized severe weather event.
Flash flood threat? There has hardly been any rain over the past several months as a result of the drought. Even though we expect 3 to 5 inches of rain it still isn’t enough for a widespread flash flooding threat. Areas commonly known to flooding and low-lying areas will be suspectable to flooding though.
Will it rain where I live at 5541 MeMeMe Drive? Probably. But you might want to consider asking less selfish questions.
While this is not expected to be a significant severe weather event we will make Severe Mode possible in case any storms do become severe and to relay any information from the Weather Service. We have recently launched a new Discord server that our Team members have happily become a part of, and we encourage all of our fans and followers to join as well so we can communicate with you as well!