As of 9:30 pm there is a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across eastern Arkansas approaching the Mississippi River. The Storm Prediction Center current has northwest Alabama outlined in a Marginal Risk for severe storms, where damaging winds and an isolated/brief tornado are possible:
As we go through the overnight hours, expect rain to increase in coverage from west to east. Hi-res model data shows showers and thunderstorms entering northwest Alabama around 3:00 AM:
TIMING: Here is a guesstimated timeline for storms to arrive. Keep in mind rain will last for a long period of time once the intial line makes it through.
- 3:00am- Florence/Muscle Shoals/Tuscumbia/Hackelburg/Hamilton/Vernon
- 4:00am- Athens/Cullman
- 5:00am- I-65/Huntsville
- 6:00am- Scottsboro/Guntersville
- 7:00am- Ft. Payne/Gadsden
TORNADO RISK WITH THUNDERSTORMS. There is a low, but not-zero risk for a spin-up tornado mainly across northwest Alabama. The risk diminishes as the line moves east.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT: Gusty winds of 50-60 MPH will certainly be possible with these storms. This is enough to bring down tree limbs and cause power outages.
FLOODING THREAT: Given the coverage of thunderstorms, ,recent rainfall, and the very moist atmosphere, we can certainly expect some flooding issues across the area. Although flood-prone areas will be of the greatest concern.
We will bring you as many updates as we can throughout the night. Given this is an isolated threat and it will be through the overnight, it is critical to be sure to have a way to receive warnings should any be issued.